Potential (Downward) Climax Run of U.S. Dollar

Today the U.S. Dollar Index touched the lower channel (blue line) of its down trend and sharply bounced off (green arrow). Both suggests little downside for the dollar. Many may guess that the dollar may start to rise from here. However, I do see a bear flag (green lines) that points to a target far below the lower channel. To reach the target, the dollar needs to experience a downward climax run, which translates to a upward climax run of the S & P 500 Index following recent negative correlation between them. More supporting technical signs are:

1. the sharp bounce offs (blue arrows) on the upper border of the bear flag,
2. the downside break-out of the bear flag yesterday,
3. the retest of the resistance line (read line) after the break-out, and
4. the sharp bounce off (red arrow) on the resistance line.

All that been said, it may still happen that the dollar moves above the resistance line and invalidate all the technicals cited above.