Saturday, August 22, 2009

In Sync With Barron's

I take it as a complement when I saw Michael Santoli saying in today's Streetwise column of the Barron's (may require subscription) that
Frequently this summer, the pre-market direction is obeyed at the New York open, after which the indexes stall. In nearly half of all trading sessions since June, the overnight index change has exceeded the move from U.S. open to close.
This aligns with my view expressed in the post "The Missing Part" that future market dominated and led the stock market recently. Michael went on to explain that the future market is driven by "the influence of global marco sentiment" and emerging markets in Asia and Europe are the leaders.

Another Michael's point worth to mention is on the so-called "profit leverage indicator".
Morgan Stanley strategists point out that employee compensation fell by an unprecedented 6% in the most recent reported 12-month period, while productivity growth -- in defiance of past recessionary patterns -- remained positive.

Jim Paulsen of Wells Capital Management maintains a "profit leverage indicator" derived from measures of business productivity, total unemployment and factory unemployment. It has skyrocketed to levels not seen since the mid-1970s.
Surely this will refresh bulls' hope and should be taken as a warning sign by bears.

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